Slide1: Laurent GUIHERY University Lumière Lyon 2 laurent.guihery@let.ish-lyon.cnrs.fr Université Lumière Lyon 2 - A.E.S. International Economic Issues  First semester 2005-2006


Slide2: Laurent GUIHERY, maître de conférences University Lumière Lyon 2, LET-ISH laurent.guihery@let.ish-lyon.cnrs.fr Introduction : four topics to study... 1) The Globalization and the World Economy : International Economics 2) The Digital Economy and Information Technology (IT) 3) The European Integration 4) Environment and Transport, if we have time !


Slide3: Laurent GUIHERY, maître de conférences University Lumière Lyon 2, LET-ISH laurent.guihery@let.ish-lyon.cnrs.fr 1) The Globalization and the World Economy : International Economics


Slide5: Source : Les Echos, May 2002 How the E.U. can go in the right way ?


Slide6: Too simply analysis ?


Slide7: Why studying international economics? Era of globalization : quick facts (Source : IMF) 70% Reduction in cost of ocean freight transport between 1920 and 1990 84% Reduction in cost of air transport between 1930 and 1990 $60.42: Cost of a 3-minute telephone call from New York to London in 1960 (in 2000 U.S. dollars) ; $0.40 Cost of same call in 2000 $1,869,004 Price of computer and peripheral equipment in 1960 (relative to GDP deflator; 2000=1000) ; $1,000 Price of equivalent computer in 2000 350 000 travelers in airplane all over the world at this time !


Slide8: Increasing interactions between nations innovation, technology (Internet, E-commerce) Global economic institutions Era of regional economic groups : “the end of the nation state” (K. Ohmae) ? Common world issue : environment, green house effect, pollution, securities World standard (standard of living) - travel - consumption Benefit of word trade each day : decrease in prices of the products New partner : Russia, East Europe, China, India, Brazil, We are in a global / local world : “Glocal” ? (see A. Giddens) Interesting ! ! !


References: References Textbooks: Contemporary Economics : an application approach, by Robert J. Carbaugh, South-Western, Thomson Learning,2nd Edition, 2003 International Economics, by Robert J. Carbaugh, 8th edition, South-Western Pub, 2001


Contents of the Lecture: Contents of the Lecture Trade and investment increasingly cross national boundaries all over the world creating a "global economy". This course will examine the economics of "globalization" from several different perspectives. Globalization can then be understood in terms of : - a world of individuals and firms aiming at the efficient allocation of resources while looking for their self-interests through confrontation of demand and supply ; - a world of nation-states in competition seeking security and prosperity by developing their power relative to rival states; - a world where inequalities of power and inequalities of wealth and hierarchies, organized in a global division of labor which generates a first "world" and a "third" one.


Methodology: Methodology Balance between applied economics and theory Avoid simplification : see « competitiveness » Thinking global in economics science : public economics, innovation/industrial economics, information economics and INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS Thinking history Thinking geographically global : USA, Europe, Asia, Eastern Europe,… Thinking Internet and @-Economy, technological progress Thinking irreversibility, risk (environmental risks) Thinking interdependence Academic work and discussion


International Economics: International Economics The course will be divided into 2 parts Short introduction : What does International Economics means ? We will try to define our subject and limit it : methodology, time period, academic debate, constraints : Microeconomics : trade, comparative advantages, incentives, rent seeking Macroeconomics : exchange rate, international finance, balance of payments Globalization : institutions, competitiveness, specialization, future… Part 1 : State of the art of today’s international trade and finance The first part is related to the description of the major changes in the contemporary international trade relations and in international Finance, integrating both recent trends, today debate and crisis. Structure of world trade : from the old to the new International Division of Labor Evolution in International Trade and International Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Globalization : Evolution of specialization, competitiveness, industrial policies and trade : current debate (U.S.A., European Union, Japan) To sum up : DYNAMISM, POLARISATION, INTERDEPENDANCIES, ASYMETRY, CRISIS POSSIBLE, SERVICES, FUTURE (E-economy)


Slide13: Part 2 : The logic of globalization : from protectionism to economic integration This fourth part will present some issues related to globalization phenomenon. We will begin with the analysis of protectionism (tariffs, non tariffs barriers) and the walk towards economic integration. We will focus on NAFTA, on the European Union, on East Asian Economies (China). We will also highlight the role of International Institutions (IMF, World Bank, WTO) and give some elements on OPEC Oil Cartel. The role of multinational firms / transnational corporations and direct investments will be studied. Then we will focus on the international financial markets, their success and their failures, especially in some developing countries. We will work also on the role of industrial policies and new form of market protection. Part 3 : International Monetary Mechanics The third part will focus on topics related to international financial relations including the study of the balance-of-payments account, foreign exchange transactions and the International Monetary System, notably its functioning and its evolution. The European Monetary System ant the new European currency (Euro) will be presented within this framework. Part 4 : Conclusion : future of globalization The last part will examine some issues that involve trade theory and international monetary theory. Referring directly to the course’s works, we will try to understand today situation of trade policy and economic cooperation between nations : Imbalances and today challenges (New Economy and international economics, debate on globalization and inequalities, integration of less developing countries, international trade and environment). Current U.S.A. – European Union discussions on subsidies to industrial and agricultural sector from both side of the Atlantic. Role and future of WTO and international institutions.


INTRO.: What does international economics means?: INTRO.: What does international economics means? • MICROECONOMICS ? Gain/losses, absolute advantage, incentives, comparative advantage, tariff, subsidies, trade policy • MACROECONOMICS ? Balance of payments, exchange rates, fiscal policy, external chocks (oil,..), fiscal federalism • GLOBAL ECONOMICS ? World institutions: IMF, GATT, WTO, WB, ...; Public Choice, lobby, process of negotiations, leadership, balance


Why Nations Trade ?: Why Nations Trade ? International trade give us a large variety of goods and services from other countries ; Explore mew markets ; International trade promotes specialization and efficiency in production (fixed costs, increasing return to scale) ; International trade means income and employment for the countries involved ; Human being is international : see History (Discovery of America, See role of travels today : if international trade is not organized/rules/controlled/supported, people, the private sector, groups will move international on their own (See what happens in transition countries like Ukraine : high mobility of people, high flows of capitals outside the countries, high share of shadow economy : balance ?)


INTERNATIONAL TRADE MEANS BOUNDARIESDomestic Vs. International Economic Relations : INTERNATIONAL TRADE MEANS BOUNDARIES Domestic Vs. International Economic Relations National boundaries have profound implications for the analysis / conduct of trade: Exchange Rates;Currency Commercial Policy; Different Domestic Policies; Redistribution policy - transfers Relative Immobility of Productive Factors; Mobility of labor (See difference Europe / USA) Marketing / Strategic considerations Culture, identities, behaviors (football !) Statistical Data


Slide17: Part 1 : Overview of world economy state of the art of the world’s economies and trade major groups of world's economies comparative economic statistics in trade and services, capital : 1) USA 2) the European Union


Slide18: U.S.A, Eurozone and Japan


State of the art : world trade: State of the art : world trade DYNAMISM (High U.S. Growth since the beginning of the 90s) POLARISATION (DC : 69 % of world trade ; LDC : 27 % ; transition countries : 4 %) INTERDEPENDANCIES ASYMETRY, INEGALITIES CRISIS POSSIBLE (Financial crisis ; Asia crisis) SERVICES FUTURE (@-economy, E-commerce)


Slide20: Source : Economic Report of the President,U.S.A., 2000


Slide21: Trade as % of GDP in 1996 Source : Contemporary Economics : an application approach, by Robert J. Carbaugh, South-Western, Thomson Learning,2nd Edition, 2002


Slide22: Polarisation In trade analysis, we have now to take into consideration the European Union as a single trade entity, especially with coming of the Eurozone (See later on with lecture on the European Union). - old way : by member-states (relevant for UK, Sweden, and Denmark because they are not in the Eurozone) - today perspective : by E.U. 15 / Eurozone due to transfer to the European level of the competency for trade policy


Slide23: INTERDEPENDANCIES Intra- and interregional trade 8% 19 % 26 % 25 % Source : Les cahiers français (Sandretto, Abdelmaki), WTO ; middle of the 90s Share of trade (intra and extra) in % of total trade of each region


Slide24: 1) U.S.A. 2) European Union


Slide25: U.S.A. to sum up : - Leader of the world economy - Largest trade deficit in the world but put back 370 billion U.S. $ in the world economy ; 25-30 million U.S. jobs are linked to trade and investment - IMPORTANT : Export more services than import (@-economy, services,…) : leader - Low saving, dependent of foreign capital for investment


Slide26: Source : Economic Report of the President,U.S.A., 2002


Slide27: Source : Contemporary Economics : an application approach, by Robert J. Carbaugh, South-Western, Thomson Learning,2nd Edition, 2002


Slide28: Source : Economic Report of the President,U.S.A., 2002


Slide29: Source : Economic Report of the President,U.S.A., 2000


Slide30: E.U. to sum up: 1) Biased integration : monetary integration, no real budget/fiscal integration, no political integration : pre-federal order 2) Euro : single currency, unified common market, free mobility of goods, labor and capital, no tariff within the common market 3) Complicated : U.E. 15, Eurozone, U.E. 27 with the new member-states from the East (2005 ?) 4) Trade policy, competition policy : a clear competency of the European level of government We will come to the E.U. later on !


Slide31: Source : Eurostat, n° 117/2001, EU : the E.U. figures for DOHA conference, 2001


Slide32: Source : Eurostat, n° 117/2001, EU : the E.U. figures for DOHA conference, 2001


Slide33: Source : Eurostat, n° 117/2001, EU : the E.U. figures for DOHA conference, 2001